Summary
- The GTA 6 delay to 2026 is expected to cost the global gaming market $2.7 billion in 2025.
- Ampere Analysis predicts the industry will still grow slightly, reaching $201.3 billion next year.
- Nintendo is poised to benefit with the Switch 2 launching in June 2025.
GTA 6 Delay Shakes 2025 Revenue Forecast
The GTA 6 delay to 2026 could cost the global video game industry nearly $2.7 billion in potential revenue next year, according to Ampere Analysis. Originally slated to supercharge 2025’s game and hardware sales, GTA 6 was expected to sell 40 million units and generate over $3 billion in its first year alone. That spending is now pushed to 2026, leaving a significant gap in the industry’s projected earnings.
Minimal Growth Projected Without GTA 6
Ampere forecasts the global gaming market will still grow in 2025, but barely—only 1% year-over-year, reaching $201.3 billion compared to 2024’s $199.4 billion. That growth is drastically lower than 2024’s +3.5% and far from the 2.2% boost expected in 2026 when GTA 6 finally launches.
Analysts like Michael Pachter and Mike Hickney remain bullish on Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), with Hickney expecting the game to deliver strong live-service and premium revenue over multiple years. Meanwhile, analyst Clay Griffin has taken a neutral stance, calling the delay a “non-event” in the grand scheme.
Nintendo Switch 2 Set to Fill the Gap
While Rockstar’s delay leaves a vacuum in 2025’s game slate, Nintendo is uniquely positioned to benefit. The Switch 2, launching on June 5, 2025, is now seen as the most important product launch of the year. Ampere suggests it could generate $7–8 billion in content revenue within two years, and even a modest boost in in-game monetization could net an extra $1–2 billion annually.
With tentpole games like Mario Kart World and new Pokémon titles expected, Nintendo has the momentum to capture more consumer spending during the key holiday window previously expected to be dominated by GTA 6.
Other Key Growth Opportunities
Beyond Nintendo, Ampere identified several potential growth drivers:
- Expanding in emerging markets like the Middle East & Africa and Southeast Asia could add $1.3 billion in new revenue.
- Reaching underserved demographics in saturated markets, such as younger female gamers and seniors.
- Improving mobile monetization strategies, including hybrid ad models and off-store purchases.
- Building robust franchise ecosystems across media and product lines to boost IP value.
2026 to Be a Blockbuster Year
Though 2025 will miss out on sales due to GTA 6 delay, the game is still widely expected to reshape the industry in 2026. Rockstar Games is reportedly polishing the title to meet sky-high expectations, and insiders believe it will significantly elevate Take-Two’s revenue and user engagement through both premium sales and live service content.
